Aims, Methods, Means
Both fields, food security and migration, are object to planned and unplanned external interventions and display intended and unintended effects. The migration complex is coming under increased stress from all sides. Food insecurity increases pressures on remittances and on the rural population, as well as on food production, while the global crises reduce chances for migrants, employment opportunities as well as incomes of successful migrants.
The project will study how global dynamics interact with African societies, by focusing on food security and migration. Both fields have undergone massive changes allowing the usually hidden parts of flows to become more visible (Castles 2005). The project will analyse the interrelations between both fields, its relations to other important flows in African societies and their interaction with global dynamics. The research will look at the grey zone, which is where different flows intersect. It is in this zone of turbulence, that flows influence each other and create unexpected outcomes, such as mutually self-reinforcing spirals which can influence other spheres.
The project relies on a wide range of field research in continental societies (in Mali, Senegal, Guinea Bissau) where external conditions influence the dynamics of agrarian societies and small insular societies (São Tomé e Príncipe, Cabo Verde) where the combined inflows and outflows nearly dominate societal dynamics. The field research will be qualitative, focusing on the gathering and interpretation of case studies. Through a comparative approach we will develop a comprehensive theoretical and methodological framework.
The project has assembled an experienced team of European and African experts on agronomy, migration, and African studies as well as a group of PhD and Masters Students. All research will be directly integrated with African partner research institutes.
Literature Review
The dynamics of (not only externally induced) change in agrarian societies are complex, accelerating and often negative. The inflow of resources produces a dissipative economy, not development. (Schiefer 2002; Milando 2005). No single process model explains the diversity of such economies, which reflect local differences. Three useful concepts to study rural change are livelihood and coping strategies as well as vulnerability. (Hornburg 2005; Grigg 2002; Batterbury 2007).
Livelihood strategies in agrarian societies are de-agrarianisation and diversification, including the long or short-term “separation” of family members in order to insure incomes; a reduction in the size of extended families; the weakening of “dependency ties” and thus greater autonomy within families. (Scoones & Wolmer 2002; de Haan & Zoomers 2005). Even where systems appear vulnerable or unsustainable, adaptations to change still take place, through business activity or out-migration, or intensification of production. (Batterbury 2007). Bryceson (2000) has identified the specific responses made by households under processes of de-agrarianisation and livelihood diversification.
Coping strategies are the most important means by which African peoples deal with food insecurity and famine are overstretched. The counter-strategies in production, consumption and resources management, including migration, work only partially (Temudo & Schiefer 2004).
Dynamic vulnerability looks at the extent to which rapid changes of socioeconomic and environmental context influence the capacities of regions, sectors, ecosystems, and social groups to respond to various types of natural and socio-economic shocks (Castells 1998; Leichenko & O’Brien 2001).
Food insecurity, a complex phenomenon, has increased in Africa since the 1970. Different countries have often arrived at similar ends, although travelling separate routes. External food aid increased in Africa, while it decreased in the rest of the world (until the recent crises).
Food insecurity is now an established feature of the African condition affecting ever growing parts of the urban and rural population. In urban areas, it is causing social unrest with food riots. The pattern is for subsistence economies to weaken and collapse under the combined effects of market forces, political intervention, environmental change, and direct and brutal consequences of conflict.
Few systematic studies of the social effect of these ´core´ developments upon agrarian societies have been attempted.
Migration
Migration in Africa has a long and not always peaceful history. African states faced strong in and outmigration, partly as a consequence of armed conflicts and wars, partly due to labour migration that does not stop at national borders (Adepoju 2008). The need for labour force in European states, forced migration and growing transcontinental bounds led furthermore to the establishment of African migrant communities in Europe and elsewhere, though most migration still takes place within Africa (Bocquier & Diarra 1999; de Haas 2008).
More recently, two intertwined aspects fuelled a rising interest in African migration: European efforts to restrict irregular immigration from African countries, and the observation that remittances to developing countries outnumber official development aid (RathaWB08). Within the policy discourse, both aspects are intermingled, though migration management is overarched by different, often contradictory interest of countries of origin, receiving countries, and the migrants themselves. (Castles 2008)
Migration from Africa to Europe, especially irregular migration, is overestimated (de Haas 2008). Since the late nineties, the European Union and EU member states took up measures to stem irregular migration from Africa (e.g. EU Council 1999). Irregular migrants are blocked and returned. In addition, European states increase efforts to return irregular migrants from EU territory (e.g. EurActive 2008) through readmission treaties as well as growing numbers of irregular migrants repatriated by force.
Remittances are the outcome and symbol of successful migration, though it is a label for many different forms of transfers (Carling 2008). In many cases, remittances seem to be a strong motive to migrate, in others, like forced migration, there still is the will and obligation to support family members back home. Most of the remittances consist in “private” money, which means that it is not within the reach of government institutions. One of the effects is that countries of origin have tried to establish closer links to diaspora organisations, thus giving them a higher importance.
Especially remittances, but also return are discussed often in an almost euphoric manner as substantial support for developing countries (Castles 2008, Kapur 2004). Both, the flux of money and of experienced and skilled returnees, enjoy high academic and political interest, and are deemed to be of great value for the countries of origin, though critical voices state that this might be a simplified view (Castles & Delgado 2008).
Research on remittances and return poses more questions than answers. Though a growing number of economic surveys and qualitative studies try to shed light on the use of remittances and the value of returnees (compare Carling 2008), they usually focus on the migration and development nexus; the broader effects of migration on African societies are rarely addressed. Regular and irregular international migration from Africa to Europe has become increasingly difficult, expensive and dangerous. The effects of what can be called failed migration on migration goals and social developments in countries of origin are not yet analysed. One outcome of growing difficulties in migration is that those young men who rest at home have to cope with what Jonsson (Jonsson 2008) calls “involuntary immobility”, another is the rise of awareness regarding migration issues within African societies, turning the migration issue into a crux for the survival of governments (Bernard 2008).
Plan and Methods
The problem
How do global dynamics interact with African societies? There is only poor knowledge about what links African societies to external dynamics, how these links operate, and even less about the inner workings of what we call the grey zone, where both dynamics meet.
It is difficult to predict what will happen in African societies as a result of global dynamics because of the basic differences in these societies. As many actors try to change the internal dynamics of these societies through external interventions aiming at development, it is important to understand the interaction of both dynamics.
The enormous energetic differential between African societies and global dynamics produces instability and turbulence. Global dynamics originate flows of high energy with a high pace of change, whilst the flows in African societies are of low energy and slow change. These flows include energy, information, money, people, and goods. They interact in a grey zone and create unpredictable effects. The workings of these interactions are fuzzy and complex and neither well researched nor understood.
Research at macro-level (global macro-economics, policy level) and at micro-level (target groups) often come to very different conclusions. The zone of confluence with its often invisible workings is neglected.
“The big idea”
In the perspective of flow analysis the relations between global dynamics and African societies are best understood as loose bundles of flows that interact in n-dimensional environments. These flows, including in-flows and out-flows, with different sizes, potential, energy values, speed and directions are affected by bottlenecks, tides and drifts, interferences and blockades, resulting from the interaction of all these flows, causing turbulences and unexpected effects.
By looking at the whole picture while focusing on two (of many possible) important bundles of these flows, migration and food security, and their interaction with global dynamics we will elaborate a model for dynamic processes of societal change as brought about when high energy societies interact with low energy societies.
Migration comprises flows of people from rural to urban areas, and to foreign countries and back. In the case of successful migrations, these flows are counterbalanced by a flow of remittances sent by the migrants to their families. These flows are affected by a growing number of failed migrations which create an overspill in cities and transit zones leading to turbulences.
Food security involves food production and movement of foodstuffs from rural to urban areas through trade as well as in the opposite direction; the in-flows of food aid and food imports interact with outflows produced in agriculture.
Migration and food security are connected. One of the coping strategies in cases of food insecurity is migration, which further decreases the productive potential of the agrarian society due to the loss of labour force. Successful migration attracts even more migrants, leading to accelerated movements. Due to migrant remittances, households no longer depend on agriculture to survive, which further decreases production, which, in turn may feed accelerated migration, leading into a spiral with various flows feeding into each other.
Analysing the problem through the perspective of flow dynamics, which consists of identifying and analysing the characteristics of different flows, how they interact, how they affect the territory and the society through which they pass, will provide a different view of societal dynamics. This perspective allows studying societies within their external conditions but with their own dynamics, without reducing them to mere objects of intervention.
Importance and interest
The research addresses two basic issues, physical reproduction and allocation of labour. Food insecurity has increased sharply in Africa and already led to riots and political instability. More is to be expected. The crises, due to successive years of price increases, combined with seasons of drought, and conflict, have drastically reduced national food and cash reserves. The coping strategies of the agrarian societies are overstretched to the point of breaking; their resilience eroded.
The response to the crisis is to increase the flow of aid and food to Africa. Increasing food aid and interventions does not have a simple direct impact on food security, let alone sustainability. It is therefore useful to achieve a better understanding of how these dynamics interact to plan interventions that will produce the wanted outcome of reducing food insecurity and international migration.
Methodology
The research will development a theoretical framework that allows us to study dynamic interaction zones with great uncertainty and indetermination, and a better understanding of positive and negative spirals that form when different types of flows interact.
A comprehensive approach at societal dynamics, as opposed to a sector approach, aims to study the diachronic and synchronic cumulative effects of multiple external drivers on African societies. To understand the mechanisms of the “meso-level”, the research will look at an ensemble of dimensions which can be seen as loose bundles of interacting flows, creating interferences and turbulences. Our approach perceives these non-linear relations as dynamic, recursive and interdependent.
The theoretical and methodological framework to be developed will be based on a critical analysis of existing literature, giving special emphasis to the grey literature, on team discussions, expert comments and case studies. The comparative research in different African societies will give the opportunity to identify relevant patterns and configurations.
A common methodology will be designed for data collection to ensure comparability and carefully adapted to the circumstances of each country and constantly revised. A combination of qualitative methods will be used allowing triangulation for data verification. These include semi-structured interviews, surveys, and workshops as well as other techniques. Long- and medium term observation will be conducted by partners based in the case study countries. This enables the team to gather diachronic information on the development and effects of flows. The research teams will adopt methods to identify and investigate specific loci, where external personnel and local elites interact, and zones where migrants exchange experiences.
The research team is composed of a group of scientists with large experience in the fields of African studies, migration, and agronomy as well as in research methodology.
